A Korean Tragedy: Update

A Korean Tragedy: Update

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By Tim Beal | September 5, 2017 Update to Korean Tragedy

UPDATE

Since this article was published on 15 August (by a cruel irony the anniversary of Korea’s liberation from Japanese colonialism) events have moved rapidly and decisively to confirm that Moon Jae-in’s failure to seek autonomy from American dominance and his enthusiastic embrace of the client status manifested in the US-SK alliance is pushing his country, the peninsula and perhaps the world deeper into danger.  The major events in this short period were North Korea’s test of a Hwasong-12 IRBM on 29 August and the nuclear test, purportedly of an ICBM-compatible H-bomb on 3 September.[i] Both tests demonstrated North Korea’s rapid progress in developing a nuclear deterrent and although development has been faster than American experts expected the test were predictable.[ii] As long as the US refuses to engage in meaningful negotiations Pyongyang has little choice but to press ahead. Moreover North Korea is in a perilous situation at the moment being in the period between America’s realisation that before too long it will have the capability to deliver a high-yield bomb to the US mainland and the attainment of that capability. This imparts great urgency to North Korea’s programme. Once it has the perceived capability of hitting the US mainland it is probably safe from US attack, unless that were part of a war against China. Until then, at least in the eyes of President Trump, it will be a question of a war that ‘…will be over there. If thousands die, they’re going to die over there. They’re not going to die here’.[iii] In truth, deaths might number millions, including more than 300,000 American civilians and soldiers in the region who would be vulnerable, but the principle holds good. The costs of war now would be paid mainly in Korea, and the immediate region, and would not be shared by the United States.  President Moon’s confidence that he could forbid the US going to war seems misplaced. [iv]

Whilst the nuclear test was very important in demonstrating North Korea’s ability to construct an advanced nuclear device, one capable of obliterating Seoul, it was the missile test that perhaps best highlighted the foolishness and dangers of Moon’s policy.[v]  The Hwasong-12 was not, as in previous tests notably that of the Hwasong-14 ICBM in July, on ‘lofted trajectory’ where it would fall short of Japan but on a standard trajectory whereby, given the constraints of geography, it had to overfly Japan. It was sent on the safest possible course, over the Tsugaru Strait between Hokkaido and Honshu, and would have been well above Japanese airspace, as a map in the New York Times makes clear. [vi] Although the Japanese government made as much fuss as it could, stirring up public opinion with sirens, with Abe Shinzo seeing this as another opportunity to advance Japanese remilitarisation, in fact the Hwasong-12 test posed little danger to Japan.  Indeed, North Korea’s development of long-range missiles actually lessens the risk. The nuclear deterrent is a matter between the United States and North Korea. The US threatens North Korea, despite the sanctimonious and dishonest spin from Mattis and Tillerson.[vii] North Korea threatens retaliation if attacked.[viii] Given that its deterrent arsenal is very limited it will focus on the United States. Japan would suffer collateral damage because it is part of the American war machine. However long-range missiles are designed for distant targets – Guam and then the continental US – and not for Tokyo. In that calculus, the more North Korea is able to strike back directly at the US, the less likely it is to waste resources on Japan.

Making use of a perceived threat from North Korean IRBMs and ICBMs makes sense for Abe because it furthers his aim of remilitarisation, revising the constitution and making Japan a ‘normal country’.[ix]  For Moon the situation is rather different. As with Japan, and for the same reasons of geography and technology, North Korean long-range missiles have no direct military significance and produce a constraint on precipitate American action. Yet Moon’s response to the Hwasong-12 test was as belligerent as that of Abe, or of Trump. Indeed. Moon had declared on 17 August that a North Korean ICBM would be a ‘red line’.[x] This was a particularly strange thing to do. It is usually considered that drawing ‘red lines’ is an unwise strategy because it yields the initiative to others.[xi] Here it was even more foolish because an ICBM test would be a matter of US-North Korea dynamics over which South Korea would have no control and precious little influence.

Moon’s statements demonstrated and deepened the predicament into which his failure to distance himself from the US has brought him, and his country. He is reduced to waving the American flag more vigorously than the Americans themselves and to no avail. Trump has publically chastised him for not being loyal enough – the charge of ‘appeasement’ towards the enemy – and has indicated that he will withdraw from KORUS FTA and inflict various other economic and social damages on South Korea.[xii] There is little gratitude there for Moon’s subservience. THAAD deployment is being expanded, despite local protests and the great damage done to its relations with China.[xiii] Hyundai is closing down plants in China and Beijing appears to have made it clear that Moon will not be invited to China this year.[xiv] The meeting with President Putin in Vladivostok seems to have been polite but perhaps a little frosty – certainly there was no agreement on the North Korean issues and Putin explicitly rebuffed Moon on oil sanctions.[xv] The only foreign leader who seems to agree with Moon on North Korea is Abe Shinzo.[xvi]

Moon Jae-in has not promoted peace when he could have, either bilaterally, such as reopening Kaesong, or on the international stage by supporting the Chinese/Russia freeze-for-freeze tension –reducing proposal. [xvii]On the contrary his interventions have reinforced American intransigence. His call for China to stop oil exports to North Korea was a mix of the impotent – it is unlikely that China will oblige – and the malevolent – if China did cut back it would have impact not on North Korea’s military capability but on the welfare of the people. [xviii]

So far President Moon’s public support is holding up remarkably well but then the media gives him an easy ride.[xix] The liberal press supports him because he is one of theirs and the conservatives, grudgingly, because he is following their programme in respect of North Korea. But ultimately he can satisfy the conservatives no more than he can Trump and the dissatisfaction of both will grow.[xx]  He remains popular with ordinary people because his personal style is a refreshing contrast to that of Park Geun-hye.[xxi] Moreover in a time of crisis people tend to rally around incumbent authority.  However it is uncertain how long Moon’s levitation can defy gravity; leaders that embody great promise on their road to power but betray those aspirations when in office can suffer a precipitate decline in popularity.

 

Tim Beal is an author, researcher and educator.  Before his retirement, he was a professor in Asian Studies at the Victoria University in New Zealand.  He is the author of Crisis in Korea: America, China, and the Risk of War and maintains a website on Asian geopolitics.

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Cho, Kye-wan. “Hyundai Motor, latest Korean company to receive fallout over THAAD deployment.” Hankyoreh, 1 September 2017.http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_business/809299.html

Cho, Yi-jun. “Young Koreans Face Deportation as U.S. Scraps ‘Dreamers’ Program.” Chosun Ilbo, 7 September 2017.http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/09/07/2017090701341.html

Choe, Sang-Hun. “Putin Rejects Cutting Off Oil to North Korea.” New York Times, 6 September 2017.https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/world/asia/north-korea-putin-oil-embargo.html

———. “U.N. Condemns North Korea’s Latest Missile Tests, but Takes No Action.” New York Times, 29 August 2017.https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/29/world/asia/north-korea-japan-missile-us.html

Chollet, Derek. “Trump Will Likely Regret His Red Line on Iran.” Foreign Policy, 2 February 2017.http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/02/02/trump-will-likely-regret-his-red-line-on-iran/

Editorial. “When Will Moon Wake up to the New Reality?” Chosun Ilbo, 30 August 2017.http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/08/30/2017083001484.html

Elleman, Michael. “North Korea’s Hwasong-12 Launch: A Disturbing Development.” 38 North, 30 August 2017.http://www.38north.org/2017/08/melleman083017/

Hayes, Peter, and David von Hippel. “Sanctions on North Korean Oil Imports: Impacts and Efficacy.” Nautilus Policy Forum, 4 September 2017.http://mailchi.mp/nautilus/napsnet-special-report-sanctions-on-north-korean-oil-imports-impacts-and-efficacy?e=705746c27c

Jeong, Woo-sang. “No Prospect Yet of Moon Visiting China.” Chosun Ilbo, 25 August 2017.http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/08/25/2017082501364.html

“Joint statement by the Russian and Chinese foreign ministries on the Korean Peninsula’s problems.” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, 4 July 2017.http://www.mid.ru/en/web/guest/maps/kr/-/asset_publisher/PR7UbfssNImL/content/id/2807662

Jung, Yu-gyung. “Moon’s first hundred days in office show a president at ease with the people.” Hankyoreh, 17 August 2017.http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/807235.html

Kim, Rahn. “Putin opposes North Korea oil embargo.” Korea Times, 7 September 2017.http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2017/09/120_236071.html

Kim, Rahn “Moon, Abe vow to seek oil supply cut to punish North Korea.” Korea Times, 7 September 2017.http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2017/09/103_236111.html

Lee, Jiyeun. “President ‘Moon-bama’ Enjoying a Honeymoon in South Korea.” Bloomberg, 23 May 2017.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-23/president-moon-bama-captivates-korea-with-down-to-earth-style

Mattis, Jim, and Rex Tillerson. “We’re Holding Pyongyang to Account.” Wall Street Journal, 14 August 2017.https://www.wsj.com/articles/were-holding-pyongyang-to-account-1502660253

McCormack, Gavan. “Japan: Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s Agenda.” The Asia Pacific Journal – Japan Focus 14, no. 24:1 (15 December 2016).

McIntyre, Jamie. “Does Trump need permission from South Korea to attack the North?” Washington Examiner, 20 August 2017.http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/does-trump-need-permission-from-south-korea-to-attack-the-north/article/2632019

Ortiz, Erik, and Arata Yamamoto. “Sen. Lindsey Graham: Trump Says War With North Korea an Option.” NBC, 2 August 2017.http://www.nbcnews.com/news/north-korea/sen-lindsey-graham-trump-says-war-north-korea-option-n788396

Paletta, Damian. “Trump preparing withdrawal from South Korea trade deal, a move opposed by top aides.” Washington Post, 2 September 2017.https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/09/02/trump-plans-withdrawal-from-south-korea-trade-deal/

Park, Byong-su. “President Moon issues ‘red line’ to North Korea over nuclear program.” Hankyoreh, 18 August 2017.http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_northkorea/807411.html

Penn, Michael. “Japan’s Empty Menu of Options to Stop North Korea.” Foreign Policy, 29 August 2017.https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/29/japans-empty-menu-of-options-to-stop-north-korea/

“Putin Rejects Moon’s Calls for N.Korea Oil Embargo.” Chosun Ilbo, 7 September 2017.http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/09/07/2017090700757.html

“Statement of DPRK Government.” Rodong Sinmun, 8 August 2017.http://www.rodong.rep.kp/en/index.php?strPageID=SF01_02_01&newsID=2017-08-08-0001

Thrush, Glenn, Gardiner Harris, and Emily Cochrane. “After North Korea Nuclear Test, Trump Saves Harshest Words for South Korea.” New York Times, 3 September 2017.https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/03/us/trump-north-south-korea-nuclear.html

Warrick, Joby. “North Korea defies predictions — again — with early grasp of weapons milestone.” Washington Post, 3 September 2017.https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-defies-predictions–again–with-early-grasp-of-weapons-milestone/2017/09/03/068ac20c-90db-11e7-89fa-bb822a46da5b_story.html

Yi, Yong-in, and Ji-eun Kim. “Nuclear test demonstrates international community’s lack of options on North Korea.” Hankyoreh, 4 September 2017.http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_northkorea/809592.html

Yonhap. “Four more THAAD launchers deployed amid protests.” Korea Times, 7 September 2017.http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2017/09/205_236105.html

———. “Hyundai Motor plant in China suspended due to payment problems ” Korea Times, 5 September 2017.http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2017/09/419_235976.html

———. “Moon’s approval rating drops slightly to 73.1% ” Korea Times, 4 September 2017.http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2017/09/356_235915.html

Yu, Yong-weon. “Blast from N.Korea’s New Nuke ‘Could Obliterate Seoul’.” Chosun Ilbo, 4 September 2017.http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/09/04/2017090401430.html

———. “THAAD Fully Deployed in Early-Morning Operation.” Chosun Ilbo, 7 September 2017.http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/09/07/2017090701272.html

[i]               Michael Elleman, “North Korea’s Hwasong-12 Launch: A Disturbing Development,” 38 North, 30 August 2017.http://www.38north.org/2017/08/melleman083017/. Yong-in Yi and Ji-eun Kim, “Nuclear test demonstrates international community’s lack of options on North Korea,” Hankyoreh, 4 September 2017.http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_northkorea/809592.html

[ii]               Joby Warrick, “North Korea defies predictions — again — with early grasp of weapons milestone,” Washington Post, 3 September 2017.https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-defies-predictions–again–with-early-grasp-of-weapons-milestone/2017/09/03/068ac20c-90db-11e7-89fa-bb822a46da5b_story.html

[iii]              Erik Ortiz and Arata Yamamoto, “Sen. Lindsey Graham: Trump Says War With North Korea an Option,” NBC, 2 August 2017.http://www.nbcnews.com/news/north-korea/sen-lindsey-graham-trump-says-war-north-korea-option-n788396

[iv]              Jamie McIntyre, “Does Trump need permission from South Korea to attack the North?,” Washington Examiner, 20 August 2017.http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/does-trump-need-permission-from-south-korea-to-attack-the-north/article/2632019

[v]               Yong-weon Yu, “Blast from N.Korea’s New Nuke ‘Could Obliterate Seoul’,” Chosun Ilbo, 4 September 2017.http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/09/04/2017090401430.html

[vi]              Sang-hun Choe, “U.N. Condemns North Korea’s Latest Missile Tests, but Takes No Action,” New York Times, 29 August 2017.https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/29/world/asia/north-korea-japan-missile-us.html

[vii]             Jim Mattis and Rex Tillerson, “We’re Holding Pyongyang to Account,” Wall Street Journal, 14 August 2017.https://www.wsj.com/articles/were-holding-pyongyang-to-account-1502660253

[viii]             “Statement of DPRK Government,” Rodong Sinmun, 8 August 2017.http://www.rodong.rep.kp/en/index.php?strPageID=SF01_02_01&newsID=2017-08-08-0001

[ix]              Gavan McCormack, “Japan: Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s Agenda,” The Asia Pacific Journal – Japan Focus 14, no. 24:1 (2016); Michael Penn, “Japan’s Empty Menu of Options to Stop North Korea,” Foreign Policy, 29 August 2017.https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/29/japans-empty-menu-of-options-to-stop-north-korea/

[x]               Byong-su Park, “President Moon issues ‘red line’ to North Korea over nuclear program,” Hankyoreh, 18 August 2017.http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_northkorea/807411.html

[xi]              Derek Chollet, “Trump Will Likely Regret His Red Line on Iran,” Foreign Policy, 2 February 2017.http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/02/02/trump-will-likely-regret-his-red-line-on-iran/

[xii]             Glenn Thrush, Gardiner Harris, and Emily Cochrane, “After North Korea Nuclear Test, Trump Saves Harshest Words for South Korea,” New York Times, 3 September 2017.https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/03/us/trump-north-south-korea-nuclear.html. Damian Paletta, “Trump preparing withdrawal from South Korea trade deal, a move opposed by top aides,” Washington Post, 2 September 2017.https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/09/02/trump-plans-withdrawal-from-south-korea-trade-deal/. Yi-jun Cho, “Young Koreans Face Deportation as U.S. Scraps ‘Dreamers’ Program,” Chosun Ilbo, 7 September 2017.http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/09/07/2017090701341.html

[xiii]             Yong-weon Yu, “THAAD Fully Deployed in Early-Morning Operation,” Chosun Ilbo, 7 September 2017.http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/09/07/2017090701272.htm; Yonhap, “Four more THAAD launchers deployed amid protests,” Korea Times, 7 September 2017.http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2017/09/205_236105.html

[xiv]             Kye-wan Cho, “Hyundai Motor, latest Korean company to receive fallout over THAAD deployment,” Hankyoreh, 1 September 2017.http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_business/809299.htm; Yonhap, “Hyundai Motor plant in China suspended due to payment problems ” Korea Times, 5 September 2017.http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2017/09/419_235976.html; Woo-sang Jeong, “No Prospect Yet of Moon Visiting China,” Chosun Ilbo, 25 August 2017.http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/08/25/2017082501364.html

[xv]             “Putin Rejects Moon’s Calls for N.Korea Oil Embargo,” Chosun Ilbo, 7 September 2017.http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/09/07/2017090700757.htm; Rahn Kim, “Putin opposes North Korea oil embargo,” Korea Times, 7 September 2017.http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2017/09/120_236071.htm; Sang-Hun Choe, “Putin Rejects Cutting Off Oil to North Korea,” New York Times, 6 September 2017.https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/world/asia/north-korea-putin-oil-embargo.html

[xvi]             Rahn  Kim, “Moon, Abe vow to seek oil supply cut to punish North Korea,” Korea Times, 7 September 2017.http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2017/09/103_236111.html

[xvii]            “Joint statement by the Russian and Chinese foreign ministries on the Korean Peninsula’s problems,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, 4 July 2017.http://www.mid.ru/en/web/guest/maps/kr/-/asset_publisher/PR7UbfssNImL/content/id/2807662

[xviii]           Peter Hayes and David von Hippel, “Sanctions on North Korean Oil Imports: Impacts and Efficacy,” Nautilus Policy Forum, 4 September 2017.http://mailchi.mp/nautilus/napsnet-special-report-sanctions-on-north-korean-oil-imports-impacts-and-efficacy?e=705746c27c

[xix]             Yonhap, “Moon’s approval rating drops slightly to 73.1% ” Korea Times, 4 September 2017.http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2017/09/356_235915.html

[xx]             Editorial, “When Will Moon Wake up to the New Reality?,” Chosun Ilbo, 30 August 2017.http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/08/30/2017083001484.html

[xxi]             Jiyeun Lee, “President ‘Moon-bama’ Enjoying a Honeymoon in South Korea,” Bloomberg, 23 May 2017.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-23/president-moon-bama-captivates-korea-with-down-to-earth-styl; Yu-gyung Jung, “Moon’s first hundred days in office show a president at ease with the people,” Hankyoreh, 17 August 2017.http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/807235.html

[1]               Michael Elleman, “North Korea’s Hwasong-12 Launch: A Disturbing Development,” 38 North, 30 August 2017.http://www.38north.org/2017/08/melleman083017/. Yong-in Yi and Ji-eun Kim, “Nuclear test demonstrates international community’s lack of options on North Korea,” Hankyoreh, 4 September 2017.http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_northkorea/809592.html

[1]               Joby Warrick, “North Korea defies predictions — again — with early grasp of weapons milestone,” Washington Post, 3 September 2017.https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-defies-predictions–again–with-early-grasp-of-weapons-milestone/2017/09/03/068ac20c-90db-11e7-89fa-bb822a46da5b_story.html

[1]               Erik Ortiz and Arata Yamamoto, “Sen. Lindsey Graham: Trump Says War With North Korea an Option,” NBC, 2 August 2017.http://www.nbcnews.com/news/north-korea/sen-lindsey-graham-trump-says-war-north-korea-option-n788396

[1]               Jamie McIntyre, “Does Trump need permission from South Korea to attack the North?,” Washington Examiner, 20 August 2017.http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/does-trump-need-permission-from-south-korea-to-attack-the-north/article/2632019

[1]               Yong-weon Yu, “Blast from N.Korea’s New Nuke ‘Could Obliterate Seoul’,” Chosun Ilbo, 4 September 2017.http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/09/04/2017090401430.html

[1]               Sang-hun Choe, “U.N. Condemns North Korea’s Latest Missile Tests, but Takes No Action,” New York Times, 29 August 2017.https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/29/world/asia/north-korea-japan-missile-us.html

[1]               Jim Mattis and Rex Tillerson, “We’re Holding Pyongyang to Account,” Wall Street Journal, 14 August 2017.https://www.wsj.com/articles/were-holding-pyongyang-to-account-1502660253

[1]               “Statement of DPRK Government,” Rodong Sinmun, 8 August 2017.http://www.rodong.rep.kp/en/index.php?strPageID=SF01_02_01&newsID=2017-08-08-0001

[1]               Gavan McCormack, “Japan: Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s Agenda,” The Asia Pacific Journal – Japan Focus 14, no. 24:1 (2016); Michael Penn, “Japan’s Empty Menu of Options to Stop North Korea,” Foreign Policy, 29 August 2017.https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/29/japans-empty-menu-of-options-to-stop-north-korea/

[1]               Byong-su Park, “President Moon issues ‘red line’ to North Korea over nuclear program,” Hankyoreh, 18 August 2017.http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_northkorea/807411.html

[1]               Derek Chollet, “Trump Will Likely Regret His Red Line on Iran,” Foreign Policy, 2 February 2017.http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/02/02/trump-will-likely-regret-his-red-line-on-iran/

[1]               Glenn Thrush, Gardiner Harris, and Emily Cochrane, “After North Korea Nuclear Test, Trump Saves Harshest Words for South Korea,” New York Times, 3 September 2017.https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/03/us/trump-north-south-korea-nuclear.html. Damian Paletta, “Trump preparing withdrawal from South Korea trade deal, a move opposed by top aides,” Washington Post, 2 September 2017.https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/09/02/trump-plans-withdrawal-from-south-korea-trade-deal/. Yi-jun Cho, “Young Koreans Face Deportation as U.S. Scraps ‘Dreamers’ Program,” Chosun Ilbo, 7 September 2017.http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/09/07/2017090701341.html

[1]               Yong-weon Yu, “THAAD Fully Deployed in Early-Morning Operation,” Chosun Ilbo, 7 September 2017.http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/09/07/2017090701272.htm; Yonhap, “Four more THAAD launchers deployed amid protests,” Korea Times, 7 September 2017.http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2017/09/205_236105.html

[1]               Kye-wan Cho, “Hyundai Motor, latest Korean company to receive fallout over THAAD deployment,” Hankyoreh, 1 September 2017.http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_business/809299.htm; Yonhap, “Hyundai Motor plant in China suspended due to payment problems ” Korea Times, 5 September 2017.http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2017/09/419_235976.html; Woo-sang Jeong, “No Prospect Yet of Moon Visiting China,” Chosun Ilbo, 25 August 2017.http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/08/25/2017082501364.html

[1]               “Putin Rejects Moon’s Calls for N.Korea Oil Embargo,” Chosun Ilbo, 7 September 2017.http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/09/07/2017090700757.htm; Rahn Kim, “Putin opposes North Korea oil embargo,” Korea Times, 7 September 2017.http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2017/09/120_236071.htm; Sang-Hun Choe, “Putin Rejects Cutting Off Oil to North Korea,” New York Times, 6 September 2017.https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/world/asia/north-korea-putin-oil-embargo.html

[1]               Rahn  Kim, “Moon, Abe vow to seek oil supply cut to punish North Korea,” Korea Times, 7 September 2017.http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2017/09/103_236111.html

[1]               “Joint statement by the Russian and Chinese foreign ministries on the Korean Peninsula’s problems,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, 4 July 2017.http://www.mid.ru/en/web/guest/maps/kr/-/asset_publisher/PR7UbfssNImL/content/id/2807662

[1]               Peter Hayes and David von Hippel, “Sanctions on North Korean Oil Imports: Impacts and Efficacy,” Nautilus Policy Forum, 4 September 2017.http://mailchi.mp/nautilus/napsnet-special-report-sanctions-on-north-korean-oil-imports-impacts-and-efficacy?e=705746c27c

[1]               Yonhap, “Moon’s approval rating drops slightly to 73.1% ” Korea Times, 4 September 2017.http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2017/09/356_235915.html

[1]               Editorial, “When Will Moon Wake up to the New Reality?,” Chosun Ilbo, 30 August 2017.http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2017/08/30/2017083001484.html

[1]               Jiyeun Lee, “President ‘Moon-bama’ Enjoying a Honeymoon in South Korea,” Bloomberg, 23 May 2017.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-23/president-moon-bama-captivates-korea-with-down-to-earth-styl; Yu-gyung Jung, “Moon’s first hundred days in office show a president at ease with the people,” Hankyoreh, 17 A

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